Flood Warning for Richland, Ashland, Morrow, Holmes & Knox

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The National Weather Service In Cleveland Has Issued A Flood Warning For...
Southern Richland County In North Central Ohio...
Southeastern Ashland County In North Central Ohio...
Morrow County In North Central Ohio...
Holmes County In Northeastern Ohio...
Knox County In North Central Ohio...
* Until 1230 Pm Est Sunday

* At 1226 Am Est, Doppler Radar Indicated Heavy Rain That Will Cause Flooding. Up To One Inch Of Rain Has Already Fallen On Ground That Is Nearly Saturated From Recent Rainfall.

* Additional Rainfall Amounts Up To A Half Inch Are Possible In The Warned Area.
* Flooding Of Low-Lying And Poorly Drained Streets, Highways And Underpasses Is Likely. In Addition, Flooding Of Farmland And Drainage Ditches Will Occur. Rises Are Expected On Rivers, Streams, And Creeks, Which May Exceed Their Banks.
* Flooding Is Also Possible On The Black Fork Of The Mohican River Near Loudonville. At Midnight The River Was At 9.3 Feet At The Gauge Near Loudonville. The River Is Expected To Rise Overnight.

 


A Flood Watch For Portions Of North Central Ohio, Northeast Ohio, And Northwest Ohio

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The National Weather Service In Cleveland Has Issued A Flood Watch For Portions Of North Central Ohio, Northeast Ohio, And Northwest Ohio, Including The Following Areas, In North Central Ohio, Ashland, Crawford, Knox, Marion, Morrow, And Richland. In Northeast Ohio, Holmes, Medina, And Wayne. In Northwest Ohio, Hancock And Wyandot.

* From 7 Am Est This Morning Through Sunday Morning

* A Very Moist Atmosphere Remains In Place As A Couple Waves Of Low Pressure Move Over The Region. The Ground Is Also Very Wet Across The Area Which Will Allow Much Of The Rain That Does Fall To Become Runoff. Rainfall Amounts Of 1 To 2 Inches Will Be Possible Near And South Of A Line From Findlay To Meadville. It Will Rain Through Much Of The Day But The Heaviest Rainfall Will Likely Occur This Evening Into The Overnight Hours.

* Area Creeks And Streams Will See Rises Through The Day With The Greatest Impacts Likely Occurring Tonight Into Sunday Morning.  The Rivers That Located Flow To The Ohio River Basin Will Have The Best Chance Of Seeing Minor To Maybe Moderate Flooding.


FLOOD WARNING for HOLMES & WAYNE Until further notice.

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FLOOD WARNING for HOLMES & WAYNE 
Forecast flooding changed from Minor to Moderate severity for the following rivers in Ohio Killbuck Creek Near Killbuck Until further notice.

At 11 AM the stage was 15.7 feet. Flood stage is 15.0 feet. Minor flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast. The river will continue rising to near 17.1 feet by Sunday evening then begin falling.

At 17.0 feet Private property on Water Street in the Village of Killbuck flooded. Several county and local roads impassable including State Route 16 and 60 north, and County Road 621.   &&


Flood Watch issued February 24 at 10:44PM EST until February 25 at 10:00AM EST by NWS

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...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING... The Flood Watch continues for * Portions of north central Ohio, northeast Ohio, and northwest Ohio, including the following areas, in north central Ohio, Ashland, Crawford, Knox, Marion, Morrow, and Richland. In northeast Ohio, Holmes, Medina, and Wayne. In northwest Ohio,
Ashland (OHZ030)


SPC MD 98

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MD 0098 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN
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 Mesoscale Discussion 0098
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1200 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2018 Areas affected...Texas coastal plain Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 250600Z - 250730Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Some thunderstorm activity developing across the region
could become fairly strong through the 2-4 AM CST time frame. Overall, though, the severe weather potential seems limited, and a
watch is not currently anticipated. DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorm development is underway near and
ahead of the weak surface front advancing into the Texas coastal
plain. This is being aided by forcing for ascent associated with
another low-amplitude short wave impulse crossing the lower Rio
Grande Valley, within the subtropical westerlies. Although
southerly low-level flow across the region is generally modest, with
speeds up to 30 kt generally confined to upper Texas coastal areas,
deep layer shear is strong. With layers of modestly steep lower/mid
tropospheric lapse rates contributing to CAPE up to around 1000 J/kg
(for moist boundary layer parcels with dew points in the upper 60s
to near 70), some of these storms could be accompanied by some risk
for severe hail into the 07-09Z time frame. Eventually, upscale
convective growth is possible along and just ahead of the front. As
this occurs, the risk for hail probably will decrease, but a few
locally strong wind gusts may accompany developing outflow. ..Kerr/Grams.. 02/25/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...CRP...EWX... LAT...LON 29389792 29819689 30329548 30699453 30749369 29739370 29199540 28219685 28179780 29389792 

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SPC Feb 25, 2018 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1131 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST SUNDAY NIGHT... ...SUMMARY...
General thunderstorms are expected mainly from Texas eastward along
the central Gulf Coast on Sunday. A few storms may be capable of
localized wind damage or a brief/weak tornado, mainly across
southern Louisiana into the far western Florida Panhandle overnight. ...Synopsis...
An intense, negatively tilted shortwave trough will move from the
Midwest across the Great Lakes during the day, with strong
southwesterly flow aloft remaining over much of the eastern half of
the CONUS. A secondary, lower-amplitude wave will move from the Four
Corners to the Plains during the day, and across the OH Valley
overnight. At the surface, low pressure will continue northward from
Lake Superior across Ontario. An occluding front will extend south
into NY and PA, with a cold front roughly from the Appalachians to
the central Gulf and southeast TX during the afternoon. Upper 60s F dewpoints will exist ahead of the Gulf of Mexico portion
of the front, which will continue a southward drift for much of the
day. As the secondary wave moves into the plains, southerly
low-level flow will increase, allowing for warm/moist advection and
a retreat of the front from southern LA into the western FL
Panhandle. Elsewhere, showers and perhaps a few weak thunderstorms are expected
across AL into GA during the day, but there will be little to
support severe or organized storms. ...Central Gulf Coast Region...
While a few showers and storms are expected along the
southward-moving cold front early in the day, these are not expected
to be severe. Additional elevated showers and storms are expected
over much of eastern TX into central LA, perhaps producing small
hail at best. Overnight, southerly 850 mb flow should increase to
around 30 kt, resulting in lift and a slow northward shift of the
boundary. Up to 1000 J/kg MUCAPE is forecast to move into LA, with
up to 500 J/kg farther east along the coast. Most of the lift will
be north of the front, but the very moist air mass should allow for
surface based storms. Sufficient low-level shear supportive of
modest rotation will exist, and a brief/weak tornado or strong wind
gust cannot be ruled out. ..Jewell/Leitman.. 02/25/2018 

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Flood Watch issued February 24 at 10:44PM EST until March 02 at 8:30AM EST by NWS

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...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING... The Flood Watch continues for * Portions of north central Ohio, northeast Ohio, and northwest Ohio, including the following areas, in north central Ohio, Ashland, Crawford, Knox, Marion, Morrow, and Richland. In northeast Ohio, Holmes, Medina, and Wayne. In northwest Ohio,
Ashland (OHZ030)


SPC MD 97

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MD 0097 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 6... FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE...EASTERN KENTUCKY AND PARTS OF ADJACENT SOUTHERN OHIO AND WEST VIRGINIA
MD 0097 Image

 Mesoscale Discussion 0097
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0959 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018 Areas affected...Middle Tennessee...eastern Kentucky and parts of
adjacent southern Ohio and West Virginia Concerning...Tornado Watch 6... Valid 250359Z - 250530Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 6 continues. SUMMARY...A risk for severe weather continues, but this threat is in
the process of becoming increasingly marginal, and a new watch is
not anticipated. DISCUSSION...Overall, even the most vigorous convection is becoming
generally low-topped as associated large-scale forcing for ascent
spreads toward the upper Ohio Valley/central Appalachians. Lightning has diminished considerably further in the past couple of
hours, and these trends seem likely to continue into and through the
1-4 AM EST time frame. Although the surface warm front has advanced
into the vicinity of the Ohio River, the boundary layer ahead of the
convective line becomes progressively cooler and drier eastward into
the Cumberland Plateau. Further potential for tornadoes seems
rather limited, but downward mixing of stronger momentum could
continue to contribute to sporadic damaging wind gusts at least
another couple of hours. ..Kerr.. 02/25/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...HUN... LAT...LON 38338497 38958414 39158314 38588214 37398295 36018475 35388588 35308650 35768705 37038585 37878545 38338497 

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Flood Watch issued February 24 at 10:44PM EST until February 26 at 7:00AM EST by NWS

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...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING... The Flood Watch continues for * Portions of north central Ohio, northeast Ohio, and northwest Ohio, including the following areas, in north central Ohio, Ashland, Crawford, Knox, Marion, Morrow, and Richland. In northeast Ohio, Holmes, Medina, and Wayne. In northwest Ohio,
Holmes (OHZ038)


SPC MD 96

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MD 0096 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 5... FOR KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE
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 Mesoscale Discussion 0096
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0934 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018 Areas affected...Kentucky and Tennessee Concerning...Tornado Watch 5... Valid 250334Z - 250500Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 5 continues. SUMMARY...The risk for damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes is
expected to continue with thunderstorms overspreading western into
central Kentucky and Tennessee through 9-11 PM CDT. A new tornado
watch will probably be needed prior to the 03Z scheduled expiration
of tornado watch 5. DISCUSSION...While the primary surface low development begins to
take shape across portions of the Upper Midwest, the southern edge
of elongated deepening surface troughing extending to the south is
forecast to shift east of the Mississippi River into central
Kentucky and middle Tennessee between now and 03-05Z. This is where
large-scale forcing for ascent is maintaining vigorous convective
development, along and just south of a slow moving warm frontal
zone. In the presence of at least weak conditional instability, and
strong to extreme low-level shear near a 50-70 kt 850 mb speed
maximum, this may continue to support the evolution of low-level
mesocyclones within stronger convection, accompanied by locally
enhanced, damaging wind gusts and perhaps a couple of additional
tornadoes. ..Kerr.. 02/25/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG... LAT...LON 37438770 38008491 37358448 36618451 35788504 35478611 35238786 35378952 36358896 37218841 37438770 

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Flood Watch issued February 24 at 3:03PM EST until February 26 at 7:00AM EST by NWS

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...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING... The Flood Watch continues for * Portions of north central Ohio, northeast Ohio, and northwest Ohio, including the following areas, in north central Ohio, Ashland, Crawford, Knox, Marion, Morrow, and Richland. In northeast Ohio, Holmes, Medina, and Wayne. In northwest Ohio,
Ashland (OHZ030)