Shelby Ohio Weather

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Valid 251630Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
ACROSS WESTERN KS AND TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHWEST TX INTO CENTRAL OK...

...SUMMARY...
Very large hail up to 3 inches in diameter and a strong tornado or
two will be possible this evening across western Kansas.  Large
hail, damaging winds to 70 mph and a few tornadoes will be possible
tonight from northwest Texas into central Oklahoma.

...Synopsis...
Morning water vapor imagery shows a negatively-tilted shortwave
trough rotating across UT/AZ, with an associated 70kt mid-level jet
max moving into NM.  This system will eject into the
central/southern Plains this evening/tonight, resulting in multiple
clusters of severe thunderstorm activity.

...Western KS...
A quasi-stationary surface boundary extends from northwest CO into
northwest KS.  Visible imagery shows broken cloud cover across
western KS this morning, with dewpoints in the low 60s to the south
of the front.  Strong heating will likely ensue through the
afternoon, resulting in deepening mixing to the east of the dryline
and eventual isolated thunderstorm development.  CAM solutions
differ significantly on coverage of convection, but it appears
likely that at least isolated supercells will form along the
dryline, capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a few
tornadoes (possibly strong).  

The confidence of initiation is much higher along the warm front
from northeast CO into northwest KS, and forecast soundings along
this corridor show strong low-level vertical shear supporting
supercell structures.  It is uncertain how far north these storms
can remain surface-based, but there is an apparent tornado risk
(possibly strong) along the immediate boundary and a large hail risk
for some distance northward.  This activity will likely spread into
south-central NE after dark.

...TX Panhandle/Western OK...
As the primary upper trough ejects this evening, large-scale height
falls and forcing will overspread the dryline across the OK/TX
Panhandles.  Forecast soundings show a persistent capping inversion
along the dryline, and CAM guidance generally shows very isolated
convective initiation.  Any storm that forms will pose a risk of all
severe hazards, including very large hail.

Overnight, a strengthening low-level jet over west TX will likely
lead to a large cluster of thunderstorm.  These storms will track
northeastward across northwest TX and into western/central OK in the
pre-dawn hours.  Large hail will be likely with these storms, but
damaging winds and isolated tornadoes will also be a risk if a more
organized linear MCS can evolve.

..Hart/Moore.. 04/25/2024

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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN NEBRASKA/NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND
WESTERN/CENTRAL IOWA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms appear likely on Friday from parts of eastern
Nebraska/northeast Kansas into northwest Missouri and Iowa, and
continuing southward into parts of the southern Plains and Ozarks.
Tornadoes (some strong), large to very large hail, and damaging
winds will all be possible.

...Synopsis...
A negatively tilted upper trough over the central Plains Friday
morning will continue to eject northeastward across the Upper
Midwest through the period. A 50-70 kt mid-level jet will accompany
this upper trough, and aid in strong deep-layer shear needed for
thunderstorm organization. A broad southerly low-level jet will be
in place from parts of the southern Plains/Ozarks northward to IA.
Low-level moisture will stream northward from the central Plains
into the parts of the Upper Midwest in response, ahead of a deep
surface low developing northeastward across NE/SD through Friday
evening.

...Eastern Nebraska/Northeast Kansas into Northwest Missouri and
Iowa...
Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the
period Friday morning across this region, associated with persistent
lift and the southerly low-level jet. Most of this activity should
tend to remain sub-severe, but isolated hail and gusty winds could
occur. In the wake of this morning convection, a narrow zone of
moderate instability will likely develop across parts of eastern
NE/KS ahead of a surface cold front/dryline. Better forcing
aloft/mid-level height falls associated with the upper trough should
remain on the northern extent of the low-level moisture return and
developing warm sector.

Still, most high-resolution guidance shows robust convective
development by mid Friday afternoon across the eastern NE/northeast
KS vicinity. Strong low-level and deep-layer shear will favor
supercells with attendant threat for tornadoes and very large hail
as these thunderstorms spread into northwest MO and western/central
IA through Friday evening. Given the degree of low-level shear
associated with the 45-55 kt southerly low-level jet, some of these
tornadoes could be strong. The surface warm front draped across
northern/central IA will serve as the northern limit for an
appreciable tornado threat, although some supercells could continue
to pose a threat for large hail even if they become slightly
elevated to the north of the warm front. Based on latest guidance
trends, the Enhanced Risk for tornadoes and large hail has been
adjusted a little northward across eastern NE into IA.

...Southern Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley/Mid-South...
Initially strong to locally severe thunderstorm clusters are
expected to move across eastern OK/KS and potentially northeast TX
into AR and MO through Friday morning. This activity should pose at
least an isolated severe hail and damaging wind threat before it
eventually weakens. Some of this convection may persist or tend to
regenerate along the eastern periphery of the primary instability
axis, especially across parts of southern MO into AR. The eastern
extent of any severe threat remains uncertain, but favorable
low-level and deep-layer shear could support occasionally organized
convection into the mid MS Valley/Mid-South, with an isolated threat
for large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a few tornadoes
persisting.

Farther west, moderate to strong instability and strong deep-layer
shear will support a conditionally favorable environment along the
dryline from eastern OK into northeast TX. In the wake of the
departing upper trough to the north, additional development along
the dryline across this region should remain very
isolated/conditional. Even so, any sustained cells would pose a
threat for very large hail and a tornado.

...Northwest Texas...
The dryline will retreat westward across parts of west/northwest TX
late Friday night. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may form
prior to the end of the period into parts of northwest TX, in
advance of another approaching upper trough over the Southwest.
MUCAPE and deep-layer shear appear sufficient for organized
convection, and isolated large hail may occur with any elevated
thunderstorms that can develop early Saturday morning.

..Gleason.. 04/25/2024

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